Statistics of Price Movements of Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

The price movements of Microsoft Corp (ticker MSFT) are summarized in five ways:

• Table 1. Statistics of daily price changes using the closing prices
• Table 2. Statistics of daily price changes using the closing and opening prices
• Table 3 – 7. Statistics of daily price changes when MSFT opened with an increase of 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, or more than 5%
• Table 8 – 10. Statistics of stock price changes in the 20 days after MSFT had a big price move
• Table 11. Statistics of daily price changes in the 20 days after MSFT moved 5% with twice the 30-day average volume

The statistics are calculated using MSFT's price data across 1,547 trading days from 2015 to 2020.

Table 1. Statistics of MSFT one-day price changes

In this table, the one-day price change is calculated using the closing price and the previous day's closing price.

In the past 1,547 trading days, 52.3% of the time (808 days), MSFT closed above the previous day's closing price. 43.5% of the time (672 days), it closed below the previous day's closing price. 4.3% of the time (66 days), it did not change.

Also see: VIX price movement study.

MSFT Price Change (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
14 – 15%	1	0.06%
10 – 11%	2	0.13%
9 – 10%	1	0.06%
8 – 9%	1	0.06%
7 – 8%	4	0.26%
6 – 7%	5	0.32%
5 – 6%	5	0.32%
4 – 5%	6	0.39%
3 – 4%	22	1.42%
2 – 3%	81	5.24%
1 – 2%	217	14.04%
0 – 1%	463	29.95%
0%	66	4.27%
0 – -1%	407	26.33%
-1 – -2%	156	10.09%
-2 – -3%	56	3.62%
-3 – -4%	27	1.75%
-4 – -5%	13	0.84%
-5 – -6%	6	0.39%
-6 – -7%	2	0.13%
-7 – -8%	2	0.13%
-9 – -10%	2	0.13%
-14 – -15%	1	0.06%

Table 2. Statistics of MSFT: Closing vs. Open

In this table, instead of using the closing price of the previous day, the opening price is used to calculate the one-day price change of MSFT.

51.0% of the time (789 days), MSFT closed above the opening price. 45.0% of the time (696 days), it closed below the opening price. 4.0% of the time (62 days), it closed where it started.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
7 – 8%	1	0.06%
6 – 7%	1	0.06%
5 – 6%	4	0.26%
4 – 5%	4	0.26%
3 – 4%	9	0.58%
2 – 3%	46	2.97%
1 – 2%	214	13.83%
0 – 1%	510	32.97%
0%	62	4.01%
0 – -1%	473	30.58%
-1 – -2%	143	9.24%
-2 – -3%	46	2.97%
-3 – -4%	23	1.49%
-4 – -5%	6	0.39%
-5 – -6%	5	0.32%

Table 3. One-day performance when MSFT opened 5% higher than previous close

In the past 1,547 trading days, MSFT opened more than 5% higher than the previous day's closing price 10 times. Of these days, 60.0% (6 days) had closing prices above the opening price, and 40.0% (4 days) had closing prices below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
7 – 8%	1	10.00%
4 – 5%	1	10.00%
3 – 4%	1	10.00%
1 – 2%	2	20.00%
0 – 1%	1	10.00%
0 – -1%	2	20.00%
-1 – -2%	1	10.00%
-2 – -3%	1	10.00%

Table 4. Closing vs. open when MSFT opened 4–5% higher

On 3 days, MSFT opened 4–5% higher than the previous day's closing price. Of these days, 66.7% (2 days) had closing prices above the opening price, and 33.3% (1 days) had closing prices below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
3 – 4%	1	33.33%
1 – 2%	1	33.33%
0 – -1%	1	33.33%

Table 5. Closing vs. open when MSFT open 3 – 4% higher

7 times MSFT opened 3 – 4% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 57.1% (4 days) closed above the opening price, 42.9% (3 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
4 – 5%	1	14.29%
3 – 4%	1	14.29%
2 – 3%	1	14.29%
1 – 2%	1	14.29%
0 – -1%	1	14.29%
-1 – -2%	2	28.57%

Table 6. Closing vs. open when MSFT open 2 – 3% higher

18 times MSFT opened 2 – 3% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 50.0% (9 days) closed above the opening price, 50.0% (9 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
4 – 5%	1	5.56%
2 – 3%	3	16.67%
1 – 2%	3	16.67%
0 – 1%	2	11.11%
0 – -1%	1	5.56%
-1 – -2%	3	16.67%
-2 – -3%	2	11.11%
-3 – -4%	1	5.56%
-4 – -5%	1	5.56%
-5 – -6%	1	5.56%

Table 7. Closing vs. open when MSFT open 1 – 2% higher

92 times MSFT opened 1 – 2% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 63.0% (58 days) closed above the opening price, 37.0% (34 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
5 – 6%	2	2.17%
4 – 5%	1	1.09%
3 – 4%	1	1.09%
2 – 3%	3	3.26%
1 – 2%	19	20.65%
0 – 1%	32	34.78%
0 – -1%	21	22.83%
-1 – -2%	6	6.52%
-2 – -3%	2	2.17%
-3 – -4%	3	3.26%
-4 – -5%	1	1.09%
-5 – -6%	1	1.09%

Table 8. Periods when MSFT moved 15% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after MSFT had a one-day price change of at least 15%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 15% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19

Table 9. Periods when MSFT moved 10% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after MSFT had a one-day price change of at least 10%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 10% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200313	14.2%	-14.7	-10.1	-6.6	-5.7	-4.2	4.1	4.0
20150424	10.4%	.3	1.6	-.6	-.3	-.5	.3	-.9
20151023	10%	2.6	.9	2.4	3.9	1.5	1.7	2.0
20200316	-14.7%	8.2	1.4	8.5	18.3	14.7	20.7	21.9

Table 9a. MSFT average price changes following a 10% up day

Of the 1,547 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 3 days in which MSFT was up more than 10%. This table shows the average price changes over the 3 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 10%	-3.9	-2.5	-1.6	-.7	-1.1	2.0	1.7

Table 9b. MSFT average price changes following a 10% down day

Of the 1,547 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 1 days in which MSFT was down more than -10%. This table shows the average price changes over the 1 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -10%	8.2	1.4	8.5	18.3	14.7	20.7	21.9

Table 10. Periods when MSFT moved 5% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after MSFT had a one-day price change of at least 5%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 5% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200313	14.2%	-14.7	-10.1	-6.6	-5.7	-4.2	4.1	4.0
20150424	10.4%	.3	1.6	-.6	-.3	-.5	.3	-.9
20151023	10%	2.6	.9	2.4	3.9	1.5	1.7	2.0
20200324	9%	-1.0	8.0	4.7	10.2	11.3	15.9	18.0
20200317	8.2%	-4.2	-7.2	6.5	7.6	5.0	12.7	12.9
20201109	7.9%	-3.4	-.9	-3.3	-3.8	-2.1	-1.0	-1.8
20180326	7.5%	-4.6	-2.7	-1.5	-3.2	-.2	2.4	1.3
20200406	7.4%	-1.1	-.1	4.0	5.9	3.7	2.7	5.6
20200330	7%	-1.6	-4.0	3.1	3.3	10.5	4.7	8.9
20181226	6.8%	.6	1.0	1.4	3.7	1.5	5.5	5.1
20200310	6.8%	-4.5	-15.8	-11.3	-7.8	-7.0	-5.5	2.7
20200302	6.6%	-4.8	-6.5	-11.1	-21.6	-17.4	-14.2	-13.4
20171027	6.4%	.1	.3	.5	.1	-1.0	-1.5	-.8
20200326	6.2%	-4.1	-2.6	5.9	5.8	11.3	14.4	11.2
20160129	5.8%	-.7	-5.6	-10.5	-8.3	-4.8	-4.4	-5.4
20181025	5.8%	-1.2	-1.4	-.7	3.2	-1.3	-.0	-4.8
20200803	5.6%	-1.5	-1.9	-3.4	-2.9	-.9	-.0	5.7
20150826	5.5%	2.8	-2.1	-.2	.8	.8	3.6	2.8
20160720	5.3%	-.2	1.5	1.4	1.9	3.8	4.3	2.7
20180208	-5.1%	3.7	6.8	8.2	7.9	10.8	9.5	10.4
20181024	-5.3%	5.8	1.4	3.8	9.4	4.4	4.8	-.6
20200611	-5.3%	.8	4.3	7.7	7.6	9.3	10.7	14.3
20181010	-5.4%	-.2	4.6	2.4	-3.6	-2.2	-.2	1.5
20200908	-5.4%	4.3	1.4	.1	2.3	2.5	3.8	3.8
20150821	-5.6%	-3.2	1.9	-2.9	-1.1	.0	-.1	2.7
20200903	-6.1%	-1.4	-5.5	-3.9	-7.8	-7.7	-3.6	-2.2
20200309	-6.7%	6.8	5.5	-6.8	-9.7	3.6	4.7	2.1
20200227	-7%	2.4	7.8	-4.8	-12.1	-7.3	-13.2	-7.1
20160422	-7.1%	.6	-3.6	-3.9	-2.7	-1.4	.1	-2.8
20150127	-9.2%	-3.4	-3.2	-.5	-.1	2.8	2.0	3.5
20200312	-9.4%	14.2	1.0	-2.2	12.3	13.4	10.6	18.7
20200316	-14.7%	8.2	1.4	8.5	18.3	14.7	20.7	21.9

Table 10a. MSFT average price changes following a 5% up day

Of the 1,547 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 19 days in which MSFT was up more than 5%. This table shows the average price changes over the 19 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 5%	-2.2	-2.5	-1.0	-.4	.5	2.4	2.9

Table 10b. MSFT average price changes following a 5% down day

Of the 1,547 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 13 days in which MSFT was down more than -5%. This table shows the average price changes over the 13 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -5%	3.0	1.8	.4	1.6	3.3	3.8	5.1

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Also see: VIX price movement study.