Statistics of Price Movements of International Business Machines (IBM)

The price movements of International Business Machines (ticker IBM) are summarized in five ways:

• Table 1. Statistics of daily price changes using the closing prices
• Table 2. Statistics of daily price changes using the closing and opening prices
• Table 3 – 7. Statistics of daily price changes when IBM opened with an increase of 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, or more than 5%
• Table 8 – 10. Statistics of stock price changes in the 20 days after IBM had a big price move
• Table 11. Statistics of daily price changes in the 20 days after IBM moved 5% with twice the 30-day average volume

The statistics are calculated using IBM's price data across 1,549 trading days from 2015 to 2020.

Table 1. Statistics of IBM one-day price changes

In this table, the one-day price change is calculated using the closing price and the previous day's closing price.

In the past 1,549 trading days, 50.1% of the time (775 days), IBM closed above the previous day's closing price. 46.3% of the time (717 days), it closed below the previous day's closing price. 3.6% of the time (56 days), it did not change.

Also see: VIX price movement study.

IBM Price Change (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
11 – 12%	1	0.06%
8 – 9%	2	0.13%
7 – 8%	2	0.13%
6 – 7%	1	0.06%
5 – 6%	4	0.26%
4 – 5%	7	0.45%
3 – 4%	20	1.29%
2 – 3%	54	3.49%
1 – 2%	188	12.14%
0 – 1%	496	32.04%
0%	56	3.62%
0 – -1%	457	29.52%
-1 – -2%	163	10.53%
-2 – -3%	48	3.10%
-3 – -4%	21	1.36%
-4 – -5%	14	0.90%
-5 – -6%	7	0.45%
-6 – -7%	1	0.06%
-7 – -8%	3	0.19%
-8 – -9%	1	0.06%
-9 – -10%	1	0.06%
-12 – -13%	1	0.06%

Table 2. Statistics of IBM: Closing vs. Open

In this table, instead of using the closing price of the previous day, the opening price is used to calculate the one-day price change of IBM.

48.2% of the time (747 days), IBM closed above the opening price. 47.9% of the time (742 days), it closed below the opening price. 3.9% of the time (60 days), it closed where it started.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
6 – 7%	1	0.06%
5 – 6%	3	0.19%
4 – 5%	6	0.39%
3 – 4%	10	0.65%
2 – 3%	32	2.07%
1 – 2%	149	9.62%
0 – 1%	546	35.25%
0%	60	3.87%
0 – -1%	528	34.09%
-1 – -2%	164	10.59%
-2 – -3%	29	1.87%
-3 – -4%	15	0.97%
-4 – -5%	3	0.19%
-5 – -6%	1	0.06%
-6 – -7%	2	0.13%

Table 3. One-day performance when IBM opened 5% higher than previous close

In the past 1,549 trading days, IBM opened more than 5% higher than the previous day's closing price 5 times. Of these days, 80.0% (4 days) had closing prices above the opening price, and 20.0% (1 days) had closing prices below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
5 – 6%	1	20.00%
1 – 2%	2	40.00%
0 – 1%	1	20.00%
0 – -1%	1	20.00%

Table 4. Closing vs. open when IBM opened 4–5% higher

On 2 days, IBM opened 4–5% higher than the previous day's closing price. Of these days, 100.0% (2 days) had closing prices above the opening price, and 0.0% (0 days) had closing prices below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
1 – 2%	1	50.00%
0 – 1%	1	50.00%

Table 5. Closing vs. open when IBM open 3 – 4% higher

7 times IBM opened 3 – 4% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 42.9% (3 days) closed above the opening price, 57.1% (4 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
4 – 5%	1	14.29%
1 – 2%	1	14.29%
0 – 1%	1	14.29%
-1 – -2%	1	14.29%
-2 – -3%	1	14.29%
-3 – -4%	2	28.57%

Table 6. Closing vs. open when IBM open 2 – 3% higher

14 times IBM opened 2 – 3% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 71.4% (10 days) closed above the opening price, 28.6% (4 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
2 – 3%	1	7.14%
1 – 2%	2	14.29%
0 – 1%	7	50.00%
0 – -1%	3	21.43%
-4 – -5%	1	7.14%

Table 7. Closing vs. open when IBM open 1 – 2% higher

61 times IBM opened 1 – 2% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 57.4% (35 days) closed above the opening price, 42.6% (26 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
6 – 7%	1	1.64%
5 – 6%	1	1.64%
2 – 3%	3	4.92%
1 – 2%	10	16.39%
0 – 1%	20	32.79%
0 – -1%	16	26.23%
-1 – -2%	8	13.11%
-2 – -3%	2	3.28%

Table 8. Periods when IBM moved 15% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after IBM had a one-day price change of at least 15%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 15% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19

Table 9. Periods when IBM moved 10% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after IBM had a one-day price change of at least 10%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 10% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200324	11.3%	.4	7.1	4.3	9.0	15.2	12.5	14.2
20200312	-12.8%	5.0	.7	-7.8	9.8	7.9	3.4	16.0

Table 9a. IBM average price changes following a 10% up day

Of the 1,549 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 1 days in which IBM was up more than 10%. This table shows the average price changes over the 1 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 10%	.4	7.1	4.3	9.0	15.2	12.5	14.2

Table 9b. IBM average price changes following a 10% down day

Of the 1,549 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 1 days in which IBM was down more than -10%. This table shows the average price changes over the 1 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -10%	5.0	.7	-7.8	9.8	7.9	3.4	16.0

Table 10. Periods when IBM moved 5% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after IBM had a one-day price change of at least 5%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 5% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200324	11.3%	.4	7.1	4.3	9.0	15.2	12.5	14.2
20171018	8.8%	.9	-2.3	-3.7	-3.4	-5.4	-5.8	-6.7
20190123	8.4%	-.3	1.1	.9	2.6	.8	2.7	4.4
20200406	7.9%	.1	5.8	3.4	4.9	5.7	10.0	6.1
20200317	7.6%	-2.9	-11.1	5.9	4.0	-.3	11.9	13.6
20200326	6.6%	-4.3	-6.9	1.7	7.6	9.8	6.4	5.7
20200310	5.9%	-5.5	-20.6	-19.6	-15.5	-13.4	-15.7	-8.0
20201008	5.9%	-2.8	-4.2	-4.5	-12.0	-15.9	-15.1	-14.9
20160218	5%	.5	.3	-1.1	4.0	5.0	7.5	9.3
20200131	5%	1.8	9.1	6.8	4.8	5.0	1.9	-7.4
20200401	-5.2%	4.6	9.3	15.6	12.9	14.5	15.4	20.1
20200311	-5.4%	-12.9	-9.6	-19.1	-10.3	-4.3	-6.8	-2.6
20160419	-5.5%	1.5	3.3	2.1	.1	2.3	3.4	3.8
20191017	-5.5%	-.1	.1	1.3	-.4	2.7	2.5	.2
20160624	-5.6%	-2.1	3.5	3.5	5.4	7.8	9.1	9.5
20151020	-5.7%	.2	2.1	-.1	.9	-1.7	-4.0	-4.9
20150721	-5.8%	-1.7	-2.5	-1.3	-3.4	-4.9	-4.2	-4.1
20201020	-6.4%	-2.0	-4.4	-7.2	-2.7	-2.8	-.1	.8
20180418	-7.5%	-.7	-2.2	-1.6	-4.3	-3.7	-3.1	-3.4
20181017	-7.6%	-2.6	-2.1	-6.9	-13.9	-10.4	-8.0	-9.9
20200309	-7.7%	5.9	-8.4	-12.1	-19.6	-4.2	-5.8	-9.7
20200316	-8.2%	7.6	-3.7	6.8	14.0	11.0	16.0	22.6
20200611	-9.1%	3.3	5.2	2.6	.9	2.3	1.8	-1.9
20200312	-12.8%	5.0	.7	-7.8	9.8	7.9	3.4	16.0

Table 10a. IBM average price changes following a 5% up day

Of the 1,549 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 10 days in which IBM was up more than 5%. This table shows the average price changes over the 10 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 5%	-1.2	-2.2	-.6	.6	.6	1.6	1.6

Table 10b. IBM average price changes following a 5% down day

Of the 1,549 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 14 days in which IBM was down more than -5%. This table shows the average price changes over the 14 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -5%	.4	-.6	-1.7	-.8	1.2	1.4	2.6

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Also see: VIX price movement study.